In tandem with the expectation of a mild economic recovery, forecasters continue to predict that disinflation is underway, although they are cautious over the extent to which inflationary pressures will weaken. In the 26th round of the survey, the expected average Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rates for FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-15 are higher, at 6.4% and 6.0% respectively, compared with the previous estimates of 6.0% and 5.5% reported in the 25th round. While forecasters now perceive wholesale price inflation to be more resilient, the latest forecasts still represent a noticeable step down from the 7-9% highs recorded in the preceding two financial years. The latest survey sees WPI inflation remaining above 6% until the quarter ended December 2014.

On the other hand, the survey’s contributors are sanguine about prospects for the external sector. Forecasted growth in merchandise exports for FY 2013-14 has been revised upwards to 6.3% from a growth rate of 3.8% during the quarter ended September 2013, whereas merchandise imports during the same period are now expected to decline by 3.7%, a much faster pace than the 1.9% decline predicted in the previous survey. Consequently, the projected Current Account Deficit (CAD) now stands at 2.7% of GDP for FY 2013-14, a significant improvement from the 4.76% of GDP recorded in FY 2012-13. However, the Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit is expected to reach 5% of GDP in the current fiscal year, overshooting its budget target of 4.8% of GDP.

The Professional Forecasters' Survey provides insights into how economic agents appraise future economic conditions. Given the forward-looking nature of the survey, the results signal potential macroeconomic developments and risks. However, the Professional Forecasters' Survey itself does not reflect the views or projections of the Reserve Bank of India.