CEIC Leading Indicator for the US almost unchanged in January

The CEIC Leading Indicator for the US rose marginally in January 2022, increasing by 0.4 points m/m to 108.4. While the non-smoothed indicator rose for the fourth month in a row, there was visible deceleration from the growth pace in the previous three months. January was also the twelfth consecutive month of the non-smoothed indicator being above the threshold value of 100 which separates expansion from contraction. The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined for the third month in a row, to 107.1.

Consumer confidence in the US eased in January but remained higher than expected and above pre-Omicron levels. The labour market continued to be robust – unemployment jobless claims rose to an eight-month peak in the beginning of January, but stabilised by the end of the month, due to the waning effects of the Omicron variant. Average weekly overtime remained unchanged, at 4.1 hours. The housing market index dropped marginally to 83 from 84 in December but remains close to historic peaks. ISM’s purchasing managers’ index signaled for a moderation in the sector in January, falling to its lowest reading since November 2020. The automobile market continues to suffer from the supply chain effects with sales dropping by 10% y/y. The S&P 500 index closed January at 4,515.6, down 5.3% from the last day in December.

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