CEIC’s GDP Nowcast for India projects a growth of 6.1% y/y for Q2 FY2023

India’s GDP for Q3 2022 (or Q2 FY2023) is set to release later today, and CEIC’s proprietary GDP nowcast projects an expansion of 6.1% y/y, slowing from the 13.5% y/y growth in the Q2 2022, as low base effect dissipates.

Amongst the underlying indicators, the cash reserve ratio contributed the maximum to the growth of the nowcast for Q3 2022, 0.65pp cumulatively over the whole quarter, while electricity generation took away the most, with a total of 2.58pp reduction in the nowcast. The positive momentum of the nowcast over the quarter was largely due to railway freight traffic, air passenger traffic, and commercial bank credit, besides the cash reserve ratio. On the other side, electricity consumption, cement production, and crude petroleum production emerged as the key detractors of the GDP nowcast, after electricity generation.

Further data and analysis on India’s economy are available on the CEIC India Economy in a Snapshot – Q3 2022 report.