China’s Domestic Consumption Plunges to a Record Low

Тhe CCIC Cyclical Momentum Index (CMI) dropped significantly in February 2020, reflecting the negative impact of Covid-19 on China’s economy. The index is published each month by the Macro Research of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), a leading investment banking company.

The Preliminary CMI decreased to 79%, the lowest level in four years, from 89% in January. The index is compiled using high-frequency indicators for industrial production, consumption and real estate demand, external demand, as well as representative manufacturing and agricultural product prices.

The domestic consumption component plummeted to a record low of 61%, much lower than the indicator’s previous historical low of 75% in January 2016. The external consumption sub-index dropped slightly to 91% from 93% in the previous month. The industrial production and price components decreased to 83% and 94% in February, respectively, from 86% and 98% in January 2020.

As of March 5, 2020, the Covid-19 has infected 80,552 people and killed 3,042 in China. In an attempt to contain the disease outbreak, China has imposed various measures including large-scale lockdown that is expected to have negative impact on China’s economy.

Detailed data and analysis on COV-2019 and its economic impact can be found in CEIC’s Novel Coronavirus Outbreak Monitor.