The Chicago Fed National Activity Index moderates in February

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decelerated to 0.51 in February 2022 from 0.59 in January, suggesting that the economic activity in the United States has weakened. Nevertheless, the index remains above the long-term trend of 0 for the second consecutive month after dropping to -0.04 in December. CFNAI is formed by four broad categories of data, two of which – production and income and sales, orders and inventories contributed positively to the index performance in February, but deteriorated compared to the previous month. The employment, unemployment and hours component increased to 0.28 from 0.1 in January, while personal consumption and housing made a negative contribution of -0.04.

According to the Chicago Fed, 61 of the 85 individual indicators made a positive contribution to the overall index in February, while 24 turned negative. 51 indicators increased in value from January to February. The CFNAI 3 month moving average decelerated to 0.35 from 0.37 in January, but the diffusion index rose by 0.03 points to 0.32.

CFNAI is updated monthly, available from March 1967 to February 2022. The data reached an all-time high of 5.97 in June 2020 and a record low of -17.84 in April 2020.

Data and visuals on CFNAI here

Further data and analysis on the US economy are available on the CEIC US Economy in a Snapshot – Q1 2022 report.