China: Recovery Rates from Covid-19 and Resumed Industrial Activity

In the past week, the recovery rate from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) kept increasing in China.

As of March 5, 2020, the recovery rate climbed to 67% of all confirmed cases compared to 46% a week earlier. The vast majority of the remaining share is patients who are still receiving treatment. The death rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5% a week earlier.

Detailed data suggests that the situation in Hubei province continues to improve, with the recovery rate there climbing to 62% from 40% on February 27. When Hubei, where the outbreak started, is excluded, the recovery rate rises significantly to 91% from 75% at the end of the previous week.

The death rate in Hubei inched up to 4.3% from 4.1% on February 27, and in all the other provinces it rose to 0.9%, compared to 0.8% in the previous week.

The continued improvement in the recovery rate has given the authorities confidence to resume with manufacturing and business activity in some regions in China. As of March 5, the industry sector in 17 provinces resumed activity at a rate of around or higher than 90%. 

These provinces accounted for 77% of the country’s nominal industrial output, increasing from 55% in the previous week. All the other provinces, excluding Hubei, have an industrial work resumption rate between 52% and 88%.

In the services, the most heavily hit subsectors – transportation, catering, accommodation and tourism – are still struggling. Other services companies, which have applied policies for remote work, resumed activities on February 9.

 The Resumed Work Rate in the Industry Sector and Recovery Rate from Covid-19 in China’s provinces

Note: The size of the bubble indicates the industry output value
Source: CEIC Data, China’s local governments’ statements
 

Detailed data and analysis on COV-2019 and its economic impact can be found in CEIC’s Novel Coronavirus Outbreak Monitor.