The CEIC Leading Indicator for the US up for the third consecutive month in November 2021

The CEIC Leading Indicator for the US rose for the third month in a row in November 2021, increasing to 108.6 from 106.7 in the previous month, seasonally adjusted. However, the smoothed leading indicator has continued to decline since May, dropping to 106.2 and indicating that the peak of the business cycle might have passed.

The rise of the US CEIC Leading Indicator in November was supported by the solid development in the labour market. Initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance dropped to their lowest level since 1969 in the week ended November 20. Overtime weekly hours worked increased to 4.1, above pre-pandemic level, and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. The housing market continued to linger between strong demand and lagging supply as the housing market index rose to 83, the highest since May, but the private housing units started declined by 0.2% y/y.

Motor vehicle sales declined for the fourth month in a row on annual basis, down by 15.8%, but slightly accelerated from the 22.6% drop in October. Consumer confidence hit a 9-month low in November, on the back of concerns about rising inflation prospects as well as the Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus. The S&P 500 index stood at 4,567 on the closing day in November 2021, thus failing to surpass the previous month’s record closure of 4,605.4. The index had been performing robustly throughout November, with values exceeding 4,700 but fears over the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus caused the stock market to dip in the last three days of the month.

More about the US CEIC Leading Indicator here: