Domestic Consumption Drove the Increase of China’s Cyclical Momentum Index in March 2020

Тhe CICC Preliminary Cyclical Momentum Index (CMI) picked up in March 2020, which is а positive sign for China’s recovery from the COVID-19 outbreak. The index is published each month by the Macro Research of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), an investment banking company.

The Preliminary CMI rose to 84% from 79% in February 2020. The indicator is compiled using high-frequency data for industrial production, consumption, real estate demand, external demand, as well as manufacturing and agricultural product prices.

The rise of the preliminary CMI is driven mainly by an increase of the domestic consumption component to 78% from 61% in February. However, the figure in March is lower than the reading in January (85%).

The production component remained unchanged at 83%, compared to the previous month. By contrast, the external consumption and price components dropped slightly to 89% and 92% in March, indicating weakening external demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Detailed data and analysis on COVID-2019 and its economic impact can be found in CEIC’s COVID-19 Outbreak and Impact Monitor.